ALUMIS INC. (ALMS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Alumis ended Q4 2024 as a pre-revenue, clinical-stage company with quarterly net loss of approximately $94.8M, driven by R&D of ~$87.2M and G&A of ~$11.4M; cash and marketable securities were ~$288.3M at 12/31/24 .
• Management sharpened timelines: ESK-001 Phase 3 topline now targeted for Q1 2026 (vs prior “1H 2026”), and A-005 Phase 2 initiation guided to 2H 2025; ESK-001 SLE Phase 2b topline remains 2026 .
• Strategic catalyst: announced all-stock merger with ACELYRIN; pro forma cash ~$737M and runway extended into 2027, with ownership split 55% ALMS / 45% ACELYRIN post-close (expected 2Q 2025) .
• Clinical updates reinforced differentiation: AAD 2025 52-week OLE data for ESK-001 showed sustained/increasing PASI/sPGA responses; ACTRIMS 2025 Phase 1 data confirmed CNS penetration for A-005 with favorable tolerability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Clinical durability and safety: 52-week OLE data for ESK-001 in psoriasis showed sustained or improving PASI 90/100 and sPGA 0 responses with favorable tolerability at one year; management emphasized a differentiated, best-in-class oral profile .
• A-005 mechanistic validation: Phase 1 data demonstrated CNS penetration and maximal TYK2 inhibition with favorable PK and tolerability, supporting Phase 2 in MS in 2H 2025 .
• Balance sheet and strategic flexibility: Merger with ACELYRIN provides ~$737M pro forma cash and extends runway into 2027, enabling multiple data readouts across programs .
• Management tone: “Alumis concluded a strong 2024…The next 12–18 months will bring major milestones…transformative in Alumis’ long-term growth strategy” (CEO Martin Babler) .

What Went Wrong

• Elevated OpEx and net loss: FY24 net loss widened to $294.2M from $155.0M YoY; R&D rose to $265.6M due to a $23.0M milestone and higher clinical/manufacturing costs, and G&A increased to $35.2M with growth-related expenses .
• Sequential cash draw: Cash+marketable securities declined from ~$361.9M at 9/30/24 to ~$288.3M at 12/31/24 as programs advanced, reflecting higher quarterly burn .
• No revenue and limited disclosure granularity: As a clinical-stage company, ALMS reported no product revenues; quarterly EPS and margins are not applicable/undisclosed in press materials .

Financial Results

Quarterly Operating Profile (Q2–Q4 2024)

Notes:

• Q4 2024 values are derived by subtracting 9M 2024 from FY 2024 (e.g., R&D $265.554M – $178.350M = $87.204M) using reported totals .

Year-over-Year Comparison (Q4 2023 vs Q4 2024)

Cash and Liquidity Detail

Segment breakdown and margins are not applicable for ALMS in this period (clinical-stage, no product revenues) .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in the document set; themes are synthesized from press releases.

Management Commentary

• “Alumis concluded a strong 2024, continuing to establish our late-stage pipeline…The next 12–18 months will bring major milestones…topline data from the pivotal Phase 3 program for ESK-001…expected in the first quarter of 2026.” – Martin Babler, President & CEO .
• “The announcement of the merger agreement with ACELYRIN represents a significant step forward…will create a leading immunology and inflammation company…extend our runway into 2027.” – Martin Babler .
• “A-005 was well tolerated and demonstrated ability to cross blood-brain barrier…Data support planned initiation of Phase 2 clinical trial in multiple sclerosis in 2H 2025.” .
• “ESK-001…Phase 2 STRIDE OLE Week 52 data…demonstrated sustained or increasing clinical responses…favorable safety and tolerability profile at one year.” .
• Prior quarter tone: “ESK-001 and A-005 are designed to be differentiated in the TYK2 space by achieving maximal TYK2 inhibition at doses with a favorable safety profile.” – Martin Babler .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in the document set; therefore, Q&A themes and clarifications could not be extracted [ListDocuments: earnings-call-transcript returned none].

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA, # of estimates) was unavailable at time of retrieval due to data access limits. Models should focus on OpEx trajectory and cash runway rather than revenue/EPS comparisons for this clinical-stage period [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Cash runway extension to 2027 via ACELYRIN merger reduces financing overhang and supports multiple Phase 2/3 readouts, a positive strategic catalyst for the stock pending shareholder/SEC milestones .
• ESK-001’s durable efficacy and favorable tolerability at 52 weeks strengthen the best-in-class oral TYK2 narrative ahead of Phase 3 topline in Q1 2026; this timeline specificity increases visibility to a major catalyst window .
• A-005’s CNS penetration and tolerability de-risk the mechanism; Phase 2 MS initiation in 2H 2025 adds a second late-stage path that could broaden the pipeline’s value creation .
• Operating expenses are elevated and likely to remain high as pivotal trials progress; sequential net loss and cash draw in Q4 underline the importance of merger-related capital for execution .
• No product revenues or margin profile yet; investor focus should remain on clinical efficacy/safety, regulatory timelines, and capital discipline rather than near-term earnings metrics .
• Near-term trading catalysts: S-4 effectiveness and joint proxy filing, shareholder votes, transaction close (2Q 2025), and continued data disclosures for ESK-001/A-005 .
• Medium-term thesis: If Phase 3 psoriasis topline is positive and safety remains favorable, ESK-001 could shape the oral TYK2 landscape; combined company’s capital base supports broader immunology and CNS ambitions .

Appendix: Additional FY Metrics (Context)

• FY 2024 R&D $265.6M (+93% YoY), G&A $35.2M (+72% YoY), Net loss $294.2M (vs $155.0M in FY 2023) .
• FY 2024 cash & equivalents $169.5M; marketable securities $118.7M; total cash + securities ~$288.3M .